Meeting Abstract
Extinction rates remained stable during major climatic fluctuations in Earth’s recent past, yet current ecological models predict rapid reductions in biodiversity under future warming. The capacity of populations to withstand climatic oscillations likely depended upon the shifting spatial structure of suitable habitat, the velocity of climate change, and the dispersal capacities. By modeling the fundamental niche and dispersal through climatic change, ecological models can identify the mechanisms that promote population persistence during climatic fluctuations. We integrated a physiologically-structured species distribution model with a dispersal model to determine mechanisms underlying range dynamics in past and future climates in the global hotspot of salamander diversity. Our results indicated that plasticity in the phenology buffers populations from extinction during historic climate change, and current species ranges are structured by dispersal capacities and climate velocity in the recent past. We also suggest that historic distributions of the fundamental niche and dispersal capacities supported long distance colonization events that influenced genetic variation across southern Appalachia. We conclude by identifying specific habitat needed to maintain a global hotspot of diversity during climatic change to inform ongoing conservation efforts.
