Meeting Abstract
More than a third of all modern extinctions have occurred in Australia and the ongoing loss of these distinctive species threatens to diminish global biodiversity. Half of Australia’s endemic land mammal species are now threatened or extinct, and most ecologists agree that this is due mainly to an interaction between habitat simplification and introduced predators. Understanding and predicting extinction risk relies on our ability to identify when, where and how predators attempt to capture their prey, and how and whether prey can escape them. When predators encounter prey, the success of each (i.e. capture versus escape) is defined by the physical and performance attributes of both, including traits such as body size and speed or agility. However, most studies of performance focus on the physiology and biomechanics of movement of species’ in isolation rather than relative performances between predators and their prey. Therefore, conservation ecologists and managers lack the ability to predict which animals are likely to survive encounters with predators and why. Our work is attempting to address this gap by developing and testing a mathematical framework that predicts the survival of prey, based on their capacity to escape specific predators in different habitats. In this talk I will discuss the development of our model and progress with the testing of the model at our northern Australian field site on Groote Eylandt using studies of two marsupial species (northern brown bandicoot and northern quoll) that have undergone extensive decline across their range.
