Using ecological niche modeling to predict the suitable habitat for Trichinella species in cougars (Puma concolor) from Colorado


Meeting Abstract

P2-241  Sunday, Jan. 5  Using ecological niche modeling to predict the suitable habitat for Trichinella species in cougars (Puma concolor) from Colorado KOCH, RW*; REICHARD, M; Oklahoma State University; Oklahoma State University ryan.koch@okstate.edu

Little information exists on the occurrence of Trichinella species in cougars throughout North and South America. However, species distribution models can be useful to predict the suitable habitat for elusive species with limited occurrence data. Here, we used the occurrence data from a recent study that found larvae of three Trichinella species in 44% (17/39) of cougars from five counties in Colorado. Environmental layers were constructed in ArcMap and included elevation, land cover, precipitation, and temperature. Habitat suitability models were created using MaxEnt, and models were projected to the extent of Colorado. The resulting models for infected (AUC=0.67) and uninfected (AUC=0.79) cougars were then combined to refine the final model, yielding distinct areas of presences and absences for Trichinella spp. The final model shows areas directly surrounding mountains to be the most suitable for Trichinella spp. Future work would benefit from sampling in predicted suitable areas to confirm species presences or absences. To date, this is the first ecological niche model of Trichinella spp. in cougars from Colorado.

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