MORRIS, D. W.*; KINGSTON, S. R.: Using adaptive habitat selection to predict future threats to biodiversity.

We test an intriguing postulate. Can one use the adaptive selection of habitat by humans to forecast future threats to biodiversity? The answer appears to be yes. World Resources Institute (WRI) data demonstrate that humans select urban over rural habitats in a way that is consistent with an evolutionarily stable strategy of habitat selection. The choice of habitat is modified by per capita energy use. The pattern of habitat use is associated with increased threats to the biodiversity of mammals, birds, and higher plants (but not of reptiles). WRI projections of future human populations allow us to use the anticipated future pattern of human habitat use in 2020 to calculate changes in threats to biodiversity, and to rank nations according to their projected threats. The ranking provides an objective method to allocate limited global resources for the conservation of biodiversity. African nations rank consistently higher than nations from any other region. Preventative global conservation might, thereby, be most productively directed toward Africa.