Meeting Abstract

S9.10  Friday, Jan. 7  Shrinking Islands in the Sky? Trait- and Microclimate-based Forecasts of the Range Dynamics of Montane Species Under Climate Change KOZAK, Kenneth H; University of Minnesota kozak016@umn.edu

Many of the species that inhabit montane biodiversity hotspots occur exclusively in high-elevation habitats. Consequently, montane biotas are thought to be particularly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Current forecasts of the responses of montane species to climate change rely heavily on models that predict the future distribution of suitable habitats based on geographic-distribution data and macroclimatic variables. Such approaches do not directly address whether physiological and climatic constraints drive the elevational range limits of montane species, an implicit assumption of distribution-based forecasts of species’ range dynamics. Furthermore, in topographically complex landscapes, the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience may be significantly different than those inferred from macroclimate models. A key question is whether more biologically-informed models based on physiological traits and microclimatic data predict similar responses of montane species to climate change. I will address this critical gap in knowledge using information on the physiological tolerances of montane salamanders and high-resolution maps of near-ground temperature variation in the southern Appalachian Highlands.