Meeting Abstract
The control and eradication of invasive species is an ever-increasing problem for wildlife management and conservation practitioners. Understanding the potential future spread of invasive species is critical to inform management decisions. One often used tool to predict future species distributions is species distribution modelling (SDM) under alternative scenarios of climate change. Although extremely relevant and insightful, most of these models suffer from two drawbacks: 1) the lack of physiological data describing the dependence of organisms on changes in temperature and hydric state; 2) they ignore any potential for adaptive differentiation of invasive populations. To test what the effect could be of these two parameters we focused on invasive populations of the invasive amphibian, Xenopus laevis. We collected data on anatomy and physiology (temperature dependence of performance traits) for animals from the source population as well as invasive populations. These data were then used to inform SDMs that predict future spread under different climate change scenarios and to test for the potential adaptive divergence of invasive populations relative to the native population in morphology and physiology. Our results show that incorporating physiological data in SDMs does provide different predictions on future distribution ranges with a much higher invasion potential than previously estimated. Furthermore, our results show rapid (less than 30 years) changes in morphology and physiology in different populations suggesting local adaptation. These results stress the importance of using biologically informed data to inform conservation practices.
