Meeting Abstract
55.3 Tuesday, Jan. 6 Predicting the rate of spread for a bird-dispersed invasive plant using simulation modeling LAFLEUR, N.**; MEROW, C.; RUBEGA, M.; SILANDER, J.; University of Connecticut; University of Connecticut; University of Connecticut; University of Connecticut nancy.lafleur@uconn.edu
The spread of invasive plants threatens natural resources and environments, but in many cases the mechanisms by which invasive species spread are not well understood. Here, we use simulation modeling techniques to investigate the contributions of seed dispersal distances and plant survival to the rate at which Oriental bittersweet (Celastrus orbiculatus), an invasive plant, spreads when dispersed by an invasive bird, the European starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Using data collected from plots and radio-tagged birds in northeastern Connecticut, we examined the relative contributions of mean seed dispersal distance, seedling survival, and number of seeds dispersed per km2 to rates of plant spread. We validated our model by comparing predicted rates of spread to actual rates of spread as estimated by herbarium records from New England. Our results suggest that mean seed dispersal distance and juvenile plant survival most affect rates of spread. Further, our model accurately estimates Oriental bittersweet spread in New England, and may therefore prove useful for predicting the spread rates of newly-introduced fleshy-fruited plants.
