101-4 Sat Jan 2 Predicting range shifts under future climate conditions in threated species using the Townsend’s big-eared bat, Corynorhinus townsendii townsendii (Cooper, 1837), as an example organism Hamilton, NM*; Pence, A; Morrison, ML; Texas A&M University; Texas A&M University; Texas A&M University nhamilton@tamu.edu https://nataliehamilton.weebly.com
Effective management decisions and appropriate conservation efforts depend on knowledge of species distribution and habitat preferences. Maps generated from species distribution models are especially important in predicting present and future occurrences of endangered or threatened species. However, failing to take population level differences into account could lead to erroneous management assessments if populations are locally adapted. Refining spatial scale of analyses can improve model predictions in ways that are useful for decisions such as reserve site selection. The goal of our study was to identify range shift estimates under future climate conditions at different temporal and geographic scales using the Townsend’s big-eared bat, Corynorhinus townsendii townsendii , as an example species. We used records from 3 years of survey data (2014-2017) to model the distribution of C. t. townsendii across California. Separate models were generated using all records from survey data, by sub-setting our data based on summer and winter roosting behavior, and for each of the Level III USGS ecoregions in California. We modeled the distribution of seasonally and geographically isolated populations to determine if range shifts under future climate conditions vary based on these factors. Understanding how predicted occupancy vary across time (maternity vs hibernacula) and space (different ecoregions) could be critical for helping managers and surveyors pinpoint appropriate areas to survey for C. t. townsendii or sites that need additional protection.