Meeting Abstract
With over 400 known species, the lizard genus Anolis is the most speciose group of vertebrates in the world. They are also widely distributed, occurring throughout Central and South America, the West Indies, and the southeastern United States. On Caribbean islands, anoles can reach extraordinary densities and are often the dominant members of insular food webs. Although anoles have emerged as model species in studies of ecology and evolution, there has been relatively little research on the effects of climate change on their distributions. Over the past 40 years, Puerto Rico has experienced steady increases in ambient temperature with mean maximum temperatures rising by as much as 2°C. Using distribution data from the Puerto Rico Gap Analysis, WorldClim bioclimatic variables, and MaxEnt niche modeling software, we projected potential changes in the distribution of ten species of Puerto Rican anole for 2050 and 2070. Our models used the HadGEM2 AO Global Climate Model paired with the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RCP8.5 was chosen as it represents a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to enter the atmosphere after 2100. Model outputs show that under HadGEM2 AO RCP8.5 for 2050, Anolis krugi, A. evermanni, and A. gundlachi are the most negatively impacted species, while for 2070 the most negatively impacted species are A. gundlachi, A. evermanni, and A. cristatellus. The model also predicts reductions in most suitable habitat area across all ten Anolis species, ranging from -29.4% in 2050 to -39.6% in 2070. Our study provides insights into the potential impact of continued climate change on Puerto Rican anoles, and likely on other Anolis species inhabiting islands in the West Indies, as well as important implications for future conservation efforts.
