Meeting Abstract
64.4 Wednesday, Jan. 6 Evaluating environmental predictors of climate-induced phenological changes in migratory birds TøTTRUP, Anders P.*; RAINIO, Kalle; COPPACK, Timothy; LEHIKOINEN, Esa; RAHBEK, Carsten; THORUP, Kasper; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen; Section of Ecology, University of Turku; Institute of Avian Research, Vogelwarte Helgoland, Germany; Section of Ecology, University of Turku; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen; Zoological Museum, University of Copenhagen aptottrup@bio.ku.dk
No doubt global climate is changing rapidly and we expect such changes to affect timing of seasonal events. In migratory birds, we have already seen large changes in timing of migration and breeding. However, few studies have evaluated at which scale environmental conditions are important and which climatic factors are best predictors of recent shifts in timing of seasonal events. Our aim is to assess three commonly used proxies of climate conditions (spring vegetation “greenness” (NDVI), locale spring temperature and regional climatic index: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) as predictors of avian migration as well as the impact on different population subset and species with different migratory strategies. We analysed phenological patterns of the entire spring migration period in 12 passerine species drawing on long-term data collected at three ringing sites. Locale temperature is the best predictor of phenology but gave the highest explanatory power in combination with NAO. Early migrants are more affected by climate variation compared to individuals on later passage indica¬ting that climate change affects subsets of migratory populations differentially. Species wintering closer to the breeding areas were affected more than species travelling longer distances and this pattern was strongest for the earliest population subsets. As climate scenarios predict further global warming, under¬stan¬ding which mechanisms and on what scale they work is crucial for future protection of migratory organisms.
