Continuously-Updated Bayesian Sampling to Aid Estimates of Temperature-Dependent Sex Ratios


Meeting Abstract

105-1  Saturday, Jan. 7 13:45 – 14:00  Continuously-Updated Bayesian Sampling to Aid Estimates of Temperature-Dependent Sex Ratios HOEKSTRA, LA*; MITTMAN, E; WEBER, RC; JANZEN, FJ; Iowa State University; Iowa State University; Iowa State University; Iowa State University lhoek@iastate.edu

Most animals with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) are long-lived. Confidently evaluating the compatibility of this unique life-history trait with global climate change thus will likely require decades of data. Unfortunately, given slow maturation to reproductive maturity, sacrificing a portion of offspring is typically required to accurately estimate the cohort sex ratio of populations with TSD. Concerns regarding the impact of such lethal sexing protocols increasingly challenge the justification for long-term investigation of species with TSD. To that end, we provide a modeling framework to estimate the prior probability distribution of clutch sex ratio and to continuously-update beliefs of nest sex ratio during sampling to minimize animal sacrifice.

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