Meeting Abstract
There is substantial evidence of climate induced phenological changes in terrestrial and freshwater species, however few studies have evaluated the effects of predicted climate warming on phenology in marine environments, or how changes in a species phenology may affect communities along a temperature gradient. We use a dominant cosmopolitan non-native species, Botrylloides violaceus, to examine the interaction between seasonal elevations in water temperature and phenology to forecast the effect of climate warming on traits responsible for its distribution and success (i.e., growth and reproduction). We also characterize fouling community assemblage along a temperature gradient to predict the magnitude of the effect of climate induced phenological shifts on annual community assemblage structure. Our results indicate that greater seasonal elevations in temperature will lead to greater asexual reproduction and to multi-annual sexual reproduction of B. violaceus in areas that currently have bi-annual or annual reproduction. The output from our model combined with our field studies of succession in fouling communities suggest that in colder environments, fouling and benthic communities may be more affected by climate induced shifts in non-native species’ phenology, as they have more free space during the growing season and fewer competitively superior species.
