Meeting Abstract
Variation in species geographic ranges is astounding – why some species exist on only a small part of one island while others occupy nearly the entire globe has been a key pursuit in biological research for centuries. Over millions of years, ecological and evolutionary forces shaped and continue to shape species ranges. But contemporary species are under novel pressures that could shape their ranges in unprecedented ways. Under recent climate change, many species are rapidly shifting their geographic ranges. Although there is a general trend toward poleward and upslope geographic range shifts, there is still considerable variation in the magnitude and even direction of contemporary range shifts. Comparative species trait-based approaches have been used widely to develop generalizable relationships between species-level traits and variation in the range shift response. Here I quantify the range shift responses of butterflies in the midwestern United States to recent climate change over the last several decades. I then explore the potential for butterfly traits including range and distribution attributes, dispersal ability, and thermal niche to explain variation in the magnitude and direction of the range shift response. Finally, I explore how evolutionary history and the evolutionary rate of change in the thermal niche also shape the range shift response. In general, while traits typically examined in this context such as range area were broadly predictive of the range shift response to recent climate change, I also found support for an important role of the evolution of the thermal niche trait. These results suggest that a deeper understanding of the mechanisms that underlie species responses to climate change can aid in predicting where species might be found in the future as the environment continues to change.
