Meeting Abstract
The effort one puts into any motor task affects the intensity of the activity, its time to completion, and probability of success. By utilizing optimality theory, one can provide quantitative predictions of optimal motor effort and strategy across different ecological contexts – whether this is for animals in natural populations or humans in sporting competitions. We applied this method to identify the best strategy for soccer penalty takers given there is a trade-off between kicking speed (effort) and the accuracy of ball placement. Maximizing the probability of scoring a penalty can be a key determinant of individual and team success. In the English Premier League, a penalty is awarded approximately every 4 games and 50% of World Cup Finals since 1996 have been decided by either a penalty during the match or a penalty shoot-out. We quantified the relationship between kicking speed and accuracy for more than 20 subjects. Each subject executed more than 500 kicks at a target a distance of 11 metres (penalty distance). From these data, a function was developed for each subject describing how variance in accuracy changes with ball speed. Estimates of goal-keeper movement were also developed relative to ball speed. Using these two parameters, we developed a model to predict the probability of scoring a penalty across a range of ball speeds and target locations. We discuss the implications of our model and approach for optimal performance strategies in natural animal populations and other sports.
