Meeting Abstract

15-2  Saturday, Jan. 4 10:15 – 10:30  A new perspective on ecological prediction reveals limits to climate adaptation in a temperate tree species BLUMSTEIN, MB*; RICHARDSON, AR; WESTON, D; ZHANG, J; WELLINGTON, M; HOPKINS, R; Harvard University, Cambridge; Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge; Harvard University, Cambridge blumstein@fas.harvard.edu

Forests absorb a large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but their ability to continue to act as a sink under climate change depends on plant species undergoing rapid adaptation. Thus, considering the evolution of intraspecific trait variation is necessary for reliable, long-term species projections. We combine ecophysiology and predictive climate modeling with analyses of genomic variation to determine if sugar and starch storage, energy reserves for trees under extreme conditions, can evolve within populations of black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa). Despite current patterns of local adaptation, and extensive range-wide heritable variation in storage, adaptive evolution in response to climate change will be limited by both a lack of heritable variation within northern populations and by a need for extreme genetic changes in southern populations. Our method has implications for species management interventions and highlights the power of using genomic tools in ecological prediction to determine the ability of a species to respond to future climates.