Meeting Abstract
Changes between past, present, and future climates have noticeable effects on species distribution. For example, temperate reptiles occupy areas today that would have been far too cold in the geologically recent past, and their distribution will likely change as the world becomes warmer. However, species distribution models are usually built using current climatic conditions. While this may give a decent approximation of their current distribution and suitable habitat, it does not elucidate their potential distribution in past climates, nor does it predict changes in their future distribution brought on by climate change. Copperheads (Agkistrodon contortrix) are temperate pit vipers that can be found in deserts, forests, prairies, and mountains from southwestern Texas to New England – thriving in varied climatic conditions throughout their range. Due to this adaptability to varied climatic conditions, they may serve as a reference point for changes in temperate reptile distribution brought upon by warming temperatures. Here we used approximately 1,000 geolocations from two citizen science databases, iNaturalist and Herpmapper, to model past, present, and future distributions of this species using non-correlated bioclimatic variables and investigate the rate and extent of change between them. Our results illustrate that copperheads have undergone noticeable changes in their distribution due to climatic change in the past and will likely continue to do so in the face of man-made climate change, albeit at an unprecedented pace. Understanding the effects of climatic variation on temperate reptile distribution can help us understand their evolutionary history and aid in future conservation management plans.
