Meeting Abstract

P2.72  Tuesday, Jan. 5  Imperfect Detection, Lag Times and the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity BADGER, M**; ADOLPH, S; Harvey Mudd College; Harvey Mudd College mbadger@hmc.edu

Several theoretical models of phenotypic plasticity have incorporated a lag time between detecting an environmental change and employing a new phenotypic state. In Padilla and Adolph’s (1996) model, phenotypic plasticity can be disadvantageous if lag times are longer than a critical value. Other authors have suggested that imperfect detection of environmental change could likewise reduce the adaptive advantage of plasticity. Here, we extend the lag time model to include imperfect detection of the environment. We assume that organisms identify each of two environmental states with probabilities less than one; these probabilities may differ for the two environmental states. The effect of imperfect detection depends strongly on the relative frequencies of the two environments. Unequal occurrence of the two environments causes an asymmetry in the relative importance of detection accuracy in those two environments. Specifically, imperfect detection of the more common environment markedly reduces the critical lag time, narrowing the range of conditions under which plasticity would be adaptive. On the other hand, imperfect detection of the less common environment has a relatively weak effect, and can actually be slightly beneficial for individuals whose induction lag times are longer than the critical lag time.