Meeting Abstract

S9.1  Friday, Jan. 7  The world is not flat: defining the thermal landscape…again SEARS, Michael W.*; ANGILLETTA, Michael J.; Bryn Mawr College; Arizona State University msears@brynmawr.edu

Although climates are rapidly changing on a global scale, these changes cannot easily be extrapolated to the local scales experienced by organisms. In fact, such generalizations might be quite problematic. For instance, most models that have been implemented to predict shifts in the ranges of species during climate change, at best, use data resolved to a square kilometer. It goes without saying that most organisms integrate climatic drivers at much smaller scales. Empirical studies alone suggest that the operative temperatures of many organisms vary as much as 15-20°C on a local scale, depending on land cover, geology and topography. Furthermore, this variation in abiotic factors ignores thermoregulatory behaviors that many animals utilize to balance heat loads. Here, we demonstrate through a set of simulations, how variability in land cover and topography might attenuate the effects of warming climates. These simulations suggest that all is not as dire as reported when both topographical and biological realities are integrated to make predictions about organismal responses to changing climates. Importantly, these simulations involve long understood relationships in biophysical ecology that show how no two organisms experience the same climate quite the same way. We suggest that resource managers consider these issues when prioritizing actions to mitigate climate change with respect to target species. Furthermore, we suggest that when coupled with thermoregulatory behavior, variation in land cover and topography can mask the acute changes in climate recorded at meteorological stations.