Meeting Abstract

127.6  Monday, Jan. 7  Predicting the range expansion of a partenogenic crayfish invader FERIA, TP; The University of Texas-Pan American tpferia@utpa.edu

Marmorkrebs, a parthenogenetic marbled crayfish, has high potential to become an invasive species since single individuals can establish a population and compete native species in places where it has been introduced. To assess the potential ecological threat arising from Marmorkrebs introductions, we developed species distribution models using the distribution of Procambarus fallax (the sexual form of Marmorkrebs) and exotic populations of Marmorkrebs in Madagascar, Europe, Japan and North. America. Geographic information (longitude/latitude) was correlated with nineteen climatic variables (precipitation/temperature) using a maximum entropy approach. Presence data was divided in 70% to elaborate and 30% to evaluate the models using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) in a ROC plot. All models had AUC values > 0.9, which indicate a high performance of the models. Madagascar, Europe, Japan and North America have suitable habitat for Marmorkrebs. The climatic variable with the greatest predictive power was precipitation in the warmest quarter, which may reflect a susceptibility to drought that has been documented for P. fallax. Recently data showed that Marmokrebs has established populations on all the studied countries, except in North America, where major concern are for the conservation of endemic species. Of special attention is the presence of Marmokrebs in Japan, since Marmorkrebs live in rice paddies which could represent a reduction of rice yields in this country. Programs of surveillance of introductions and eradication of Marmokrebs are encouraged, particularly in those areas where species have been established.