Modeling amphibian-chytrid disease dynamics less than 10 years following a chytrid outbreak


Meeting Abstract

19-5  Thursday, Jan. 5 11:30 – 11:45  Modeling amphibian-chytrid disease dynamics less than 10 years following a chytrid outbreak DIRENZO, GV*; ZIPKIN, EF; GRANT, EHC; LONGO, AV; ZAMUDIO, KR; ROYLE, JA; LIPS, KR; Michigan State University; Michigan State University; USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center; University of Maryland; Cornell University; USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center; University of Maryland grace.direnzo@gmail.com http://grazielladirenzo.weebly.com/

As fungal diseases spread globally, the lack of host persistence after outbreaks imperils biodiversity. In the case of the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), invasions cause rapid mass mortality in hosts. Typically, a small proportion of species and individuals persist alongside Bd following outbreaks and it remains unclear how. To explain host-pathogen persistence, we test the following hypotheses: source-sink dynamics, rescue hypothesis, and environmental hotspots. Using a novel disease-structured generalized N-mixture model, we quantified host demographic processes from a Neotropical amphibian community. Our results present a case for the rescue hypothesis, where low pathogen-induced mortality, stable host abundance, moderate Bd prevalence, and low infection intensities, suggest that hosts have adapted to Bd infection. This type of host-pathogen persistence challenges reintroduction programs of endangered species that have lost genetic variability, the raw material for adaption.

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