Where Do They Come From, Where Do They Go A Phylodynamic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Urban Centers


SOCIETY FOR INTEGRATIVE AND COMPARATIVE BIOLOGY
2021 VIRTUAL ANNUAL MEETING (VAM)
January 3 – Febuary 28, 2021

Meeting Abstract


62-9  Sat Jan 2  Where Do They Come From, Where Do They Go? A Phylodynamic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Urban Centers Hill, EH*; Butler, MA; University of Hawaii; University of Hawaii hille7@hawaii.edu

Currently, there have been over 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide; 6.2 million of which have occurred in the United States of America. Within the US, the hardest hit locations were urban centers. Although the population dynamics of these large scale SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in urban centers are unclear, the high population density of these urban centers create an ideal environment for extremely rapid community transmission to occur. On the other hand, urban centers may also act as international travel hubs presenting opportunities for the influx of multiple, and potentially more transmissible, lineages of SARS-CoV-2 into the population. We will investigate if the SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in urban centers and in particular whether they occur as a result of rapid community spread of a single lineage or as a result of the accumulation of multiple smaller outbreaks that are associated with the introduction of multiple distinct lineages. Using the SARS-CoV-2 genomes available through NCBI and GISAID, we will conduct a phylodynamic analysis using a time calibrated Bayesian phylogeny under a Bayesian Skyline prior to compare the timing and number of introduction events, the number of distinct lineages present, and the effective reproduction size and effective population size of SARS-CoV-2 between urban centers. Elucidating the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission will provide valuable insights about the virus’ spread in densely populated travel hubs.

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