47.1 Thursday, Jan. 5 Climate, weather, and a long-lived seabird: What can fifty years of data tell us? MAUCK, R.A.*; HUNTINGTON, C.E.; DOHERTY, JR., P.F.; Kenyon College; Bowdoin College; Colorado State University email@example.com
We used a 50-year individual-based data set to investigate the effect of weather and climate variation on reproductive success and survival in a breeding colony of long-lived seabirds in the Bay of Fundy. We analyzed hatching success and adult survival as a function of weather and climate across multiple scales, from local weather at the breeding colony to changes in global mean temperature. All models included effects of between-individual variation, as well as within-individual changes in reproduction and survival with age. Local weather indices were based on long-term weather records at the breeding colony. Regional indices included composite weather data and sea surface temperature (SST) records from the Gulf of Maine and Georges Banks. Large-scale climate variation was characterized by the winter North Atlantic oscillation (WNAO) and global mean temperatures. The best models for both reproduction and survival included SST during the breeding season, however, reproduction and survival were inversely affected by sea surface temperatures; reproductive success increased with summer range SST, whereas adult survival decreased under these conditions. Other factors that significantly affected reproduction and survival were global mean temperature and precipitation at the colony. WNAO had some utility in characterizing variation in reproduction and survival, but could not replace the suite of more specific variables as a predictor of environmental effects on reproduction and survival in this population.